The November Midterms Will Defy Conventional Wisdom

Yeah, yeah, yeah. I get it. Conventional wisdom says an incumbent first-term president’s party will get trounced in the midterms and likely lose whatever Congressional control it has. But not this time. Because everything in the last seven years has utterly defied conventional wisdom. Everything.

Oh sure, the nerds will cite plenty of statistics from past midterm elections that support this prediction. And they’re right. Many presidents from Ulysses S. Grant in 1874 to Barack Obama in 2010 got absolutely crushed in the midterms.

But these are not normal times. Conventional wisdom needs ‘convention’ to thrive. But when there’s unprecedented instability, chaos and existential threats to democracy, the normal predictors don’t mean a damn thing.

An overwhelming majority of Americans are exhausted and scared. They’re frustrated and fed up with the autocratic threats from former president and self-serving, violence-inciting shitbag Donald Trump and Trumpism. As recent polls indicate, “preserving democracy” is now Americans’ top priority for the midterm elections.

Remember, before all the certifiably insane ‘Big Lie’ election-denying batshit craziness following the 2020 election, Trump lost in a landslide by 7-million popular and 74 Electoral votes. He also cost his party the House…