Trump Will NOT be President Again

Andy Ostroy
2 min readJan 27, 2024

So I am starting to feel more confident than ever that there is no way in this world that Donald Trump can win in November. I’ve been saying for the longest time now that his base has shrunk, leaving him mostly just the craziest of the crazies; that the math doesn’t work, and that it’s simply illogical to believe that more people not less would vote for him this year after having voted for Biden in 2020.

Much of that was confirmed by the polling data and election results that came out of New Hampshire’s Republican primary on Tuesday. Yes, Trump handily won by low double digits. But he did not win moderate Republicans, and he did not win independents. They went for Nikki Haley.

Also, turnout was extremely low in both New Hampshire and in the recent Iowa caucuses. He had the smallest margin of victory in New Hampshire since George H.W. Bush in 1992. The enthusiasm for Trump that existed in 2016 and 2020 is no longer there. Enthusiasm which he desperately needs in order to overcome the 2020 deficit and ride to victory this time.

The truth is, Trump is more incoherent, more erratic, more dishonest, more cruel, and more dangerous than ever. And voters of all stripes and colors and political persuasions are simply fed the fuck up. And I’m not even talking about the legal and political shitstorm he’s slo-mo’ing into the wind, which can and will likely be the final nail in the coffin.

If the events of the last few days are any indication of things to come, Trump is going to be more of an immature, sexist, misogynist, racist, deranged asshole than ever between now and the next major Republican primaries which start late next month in South Carolina, Michigan and then March 5th on Super Tuesday.

And as she has finally started to do this week, Nikki Haley will continue to attack Trump’s age, his cognitive deterioration, his failures as president and his massive criminality…all of which bruise his crippling insecurities and impulsively compel his to lash out nastier and more cruelly than ever…and which will continue to erode the critical constituencies he so desperately needs to win in the general election.

To be sure, it’s highly unlikely Haley can pull off this nomination in the end. But what she will do for America in defeat is set the table for President Joe Biden to deliver yet another humiliating defeat to Trump in nine months.

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Andy Ostroy

Director, producer, podcaster, writer, resistor, non-profit-supporter of women filmmakers