Why Trump Will Quit the Race

Andy Ostroy
3 min readAug 17

Donald Trump despises losers. He hates to think himself as a loser. Everything he says and does can be traced to his fear of being considered a loser. He’s also a coward. A weak, feckless coward. Which is why he will do anything humanly and legally possible to avoid rotting in a prison cell for the next chapter of his miserable life.

Trump’s RICO indictment in Georgia poses the single greatest existential threat to him. That state’s RICO statute carries a mandatory 5-year prison sentence if convicted. No ifs, ands or buts. And given the treasure trove of incriminating evidence and the seemingly iron-clad case against him assembled by Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis, a conviction in the trial scheduled for next March seems inevitable.

Trump can try his case in the court of public opinion all he wants, but it’s the court of law where his ultimate fate lies. No amount of whiny, pissy, woe-is-me “IT’S A RIGGED WITCH HUNT!” dishonest Truth Social posts can save his corrupt ass. No amount of bullying attacks on the judges and prosecutors will move the legal needle. And the more he violates his release agreements by defying court orders not to tamper with witnesses and/or influence jurors, the more likely his bail will be revoked and he’ll find himself awaiting trial from jail.

The closer we get to actual trial, the more likely many of his indicted 18 co-conspirators like Rudy Giuliani, Mark Meadows, Jeffrey Clark and Sydney Powell will have flipped and turned state’s evidence against him. Willis will surely be able to prove guilt beyond a reasonable doubt.

So here’s how Trump’s exit from the 2024 presidential election will go down: His lawyers, his allies and his kids will convince him at the absolute very last minute that the case is too strong. That the stakes are too high. That he will almost assuredly be convicted and spend at least five years in prison (possibly up to 20). And that being in prison until he’s at least 83 may very well be a death sentence.

They will push his emotional buttons. ‘Only a loser goes to prison’. They’ll stoke his cowardly fear of prison. ‘Sir…dad…you don’t wanna roll the dice on this’, they’ll desperately warn. ‘Take the deal’, they’ll plead

And in the end Trump will capitulate for the first time in his Teflon Don life. He will do so because he’s a cornered rat who has nowhere to go. No out. No alternative options. And no ability to spin his way out of trouble with bullshit rally rhetoric. The long arm of the law will have finally crawled up his bloated orange ass and taken control.

Trump will cop a plea. He will admit guilt. He will agree to immediately exit the race. And he will agree to never run for elected office again. He will get five-ten years probation, and he will agree not to commit further crimes; disparage judges, prosecutors, attorneys, etc; and/or spew further election lies. A violation of this agreement will land him in prison.

And the fever that’s bedeviled America for the past eight years will finally begin to break…

Andy Ostroy

Director, producer, podcaster, writer, resistor, non-profit-supporter of women filmmakers